Subscribe

Outlook 2009

January 15, 2009 By: admin Category: Market Mac

Catalyst, indicator, volatility, diversification, sentiment, valuation, and the array of all these pop investment terms seemed at one time, or another, part of any well constructed investment strategy. madoffcourt20095.jpg
Survival appears to be the only coherent strategy for businesses and those investing in them. Clearly, regulation by the SEC and Federal Reserve has failed. Our Federal Social Security System has been pointed too as the second greatest “Ponzi” scheme, when compared with the unbelievable, 40 plus year fraud committed by Bernard Madoff. He is awaiting trial and remains under house arrest confined to his New York City apartment.These events are discouraging for any investor anticipating recovery. They are also very telling of a system that is deeply in trouble. It is in trouble because of its inability to be trusted.The latest pop investment moniker at the front of any economic discussion is transparency. It’ll allow investors to have clear insight into exactly how effectively these businesses run. Unfortunately, this hasn’t been the case. These reports appear more complicated than a State Bar Examination at first glance. Additionally, they are equally challenging for any team, or individual to successfully evaluate in a short time. These reports are written for outsiders and are based on regulations created by the SEC.That is troubling!

It appears they have the flexibility to change rules at any point during the game without penalty. This would discourage most to not participate at all. The casino is open with no one at the table leaving the dealers to play amongst themselves. The rapid movements of share prices and giant swings in volatility each day are the result.

Opportunity seems to always present itself during the most disparaging of times. The challenge is selectively weighing your options and choosing the best performer.

What are the first three things one should consider before making a short, or long term investment?

Outlook Nov, 2008

November 14, 2008 By: admin Category: Health

It has been some time since our last entry. The markets have been complete chaos and we now embark upon momentous time in history. President Obama waits in the wings. He recently spoke regarding our current financial turmoil. I short much President Obama reminded us all that he wasn’t exactly the acting President.  His tab begins running after July 30th.
Several weeks back I felt we needed to urgently cover TARP. The acronym is for the Toxic Asset Relocation Program. I mention this because the name has since changed. The new name is the Troubled Asset Relief Program. It gives me side stitches laughing at this lunacy. Marketing 101 you can’t polish a turd. But, yet they continue down play the negative equity, which ultimately means bad debt.
I must commend our editorial staff for getting it right with the Lehman Brother’s coverage. This story really seemed to slip past mainstream media. It marked a turning point of just exactly how leveraged are these financial companies? At this point no one knows. And foreign investors aren’t prepared for another Lehman Brothers, Citi, or Bear Sterns, which is still a mystery as JP Morgan swallowed this company up for pennies on the dollar. In the very least we have a name for a government program, ‘TARP’ and a new President. I think there are long-term bright spots.

In the medium to short term it appears challenging. GM’s dissolution looming as the next (popular phrases in the media) “shoe to drop” isn’t going to be positive for our economy.
But, how is it appropriate to sink money into a business that loses money and allow institutions in different industries fail? This really doesn’t make any sense.

I am sure wants the publicity and marketing has all subsisted, I am confident a bill that allocates money with little public accountability. This is the plan Mr. Paulson believes should work best. Keep in mind this is the same man that exclaimed all facts changed instantaneously and he now had to react to these circumstances.

This new set of circumstances in our midst compels me to watch passively, or go short.

Lehman Brothers Fails!

October 09, 2008 By: admin Category: Market Mac

It is Sunday, September 14, 2008.
Lehman Brothers has declared they are insolvent. Oil prices are falling and the dollar is weakening. It has become increasingly difficult to trade, or invest in this very uncertain future.

The Dow Jones Futures indicate a drop of at least 300 points at the open. My inclination is to panic sell. Essentially, mark to market all the holdings of the accounts I manage. It is exactly this kind of panic I believe historically has presented opportunity. It is the size of these losses and the institutions falling that has me fearful. Investment firms like Goldman Sachs have seemed overwhelmingly quiet throughout these turbulent times.  Their share price has come under a bit of pressure falling some 15% in the last few months. This drop in share price and the Federal back stopping of Federal Home Loans in my opinion seemed to present an opportunity to buy Goldman Sachs. Clearly, nothing is as it appears. The CEO of Lehman Brothers assured investors in April, earlier this year, most headwinds had passed. Less than 8 months later the equity of Lehman Brothers stock has gone to zero.

Many holders of Lehman’s equity are Financial Institutions themselves. These companies have already seen tremendous losses the past several quarters. I must imagine Lehman’s bankruptcy will impact other highly leveraged financial institutions. I have been suspicious of Citibank for over a year. They were able to secure an incredible amount of foreign investment from a Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund much earlier in the year. They have seen significant losses to their market capitalization and yet for the first 6 months of the year I watched money managers consistently recommend the letter “C”.

Simultaneously, I have witnessed Goldman Sachs consistently report quarter after quarter of better than expected earnings. It is the earnings report that will come out late Monday, or early Tuesday morning I believe investors will be looking to forecast the coming months.

Government intervention, astronomical losses on Wall Street, geopolitical tensions through the world, an impending election, and rising prices are part of what have inspired me to follow these events from the perspective of a less than ordinary citizen.

August Select ETFs

August 30, 2008 By: admin Category: Finance, Market Mac

These are winners to watch.

favotie-etfs.png

These are select ETFs, or Exchange Trade Funds that represent heavily traded commodities and sectors. Most of these funds offer a double long or double short interest in a particular sector or index.

DDM - Represents double long the Dow Jone Industrial Average.

DXD - Represents double short the Dow Jone Industrial Average.

UYG and XLF - Represent the financial sector. UYG is a buy at or below 17.50.

SKF is double short the performance of the Financial sector, or its counterparts UYG & XLF.

USO - Is a double long position in US Crude oil.

DUG - Is a double short in US Crude Oil.

QID - is double short the performance of the NASDAQ.

SDS - Short the S&P 500.

XLK - Is a Technology Index Fund.

Focus List - August 26, 2008

August 30, 2008 By: admin Category: Market Mac

These are winners to watch.

aug-26-copy-faves.gif

These are select stocks that we believe will yield significant returns over the next 6-12 months.

  • FCX - Specializes in precious metals and mining.
  • HES - Is heavily weighted by the spot price of crude oil. Our focus is strictly on utilizing this stock to get long crude oil, which we anticipate a return to levels above $130, which was seen earlier in the year.
  • XTO - Is our favorite energy company with exposure to natural gas based on its current valuation.
  • SLB - Is an oil services company. They will respond to fluctuations in the crude oil market. Because they are an oil services company, regardless of volatility, the trend is up and their price target is above 100 .
  • CNQ - Is long Canadian crude oil. We are seeking an appropriate entry point as we anticipate crude oil prices rising.
  • PCU - Souther Copper will do well if Global infrastructure continues to grow the demand for copper. We anticipate this growth will continue. And suggest selectively choosing your entry points.
  • BIIB - This Biotechnology company lost 20% of its market capitalization in early August. We found this move downward excessive. Our current view of its risk reward situation is 10 up and 5 down. We have watched it trade sideways for the past several weeks and look to put a position on; at or below 50.
  • UYG - This ETF, or Exchange Traded Fund is a basket of financial companies. The financial sector is due for consolidation and rebound in many of these companies’ share prices. Timing is crucial. UYG at or below 17.50 is a buy.
  • JPM - Is a leader in the financial sector. They are an iconic banking institution. Because of continued credit concerns and write downs amongst banks the pressure continues to remain on bank stocks. It appears JP Morgan should weather this storm. We would purchase JPM at or below 33.

 

Brazillian ADRs - Emerging Market

August 23, 2008 By: admin Category: Basics, Finance

These are Brazilian ADRs, or American Depository Receipts.

 brazz-adr12.gif

Brazil continues to remain a tremendous region of growth and economic prosperity. These are select institutions from Brazil that under as “ADRs”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

braz-adrs2.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

brazil-adrs1.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 







WILD CATTERS - Aug 22, 2008

August 23, 2008 By: admin Category: Finance, Market Mac

These are winners to watch.

wild-catters-8-221.gif

This list of companies are oil exploration.

If crude returns to its previous levels of well in excess of 120.00 per barrel; and legislation removes restrictions on the availability of land to drill, which seems very likely: They should offer significant returns on investment.

Mentioned on CNBC’s Mad Money by host Jim Cramer.

 



August -13-2008

August 13, 2008 By: admin Category: Market Mac

These are winners to watch.

picture-1.gif

The summer has guaranteed two things: The beginning of the Beijing Olympics and continued market volatility. Commodity prices have fallen and the weak dollar has strengthened. This is, in my humble opinion, all quite nonsensical. Home prices are still falling, unemployment has been increasing, and without question credit is tight. Credit has been the lynch pin to this market. It has allowed individuals and large business to take risk.

After a brief run up, the seriously toxic Financial sector has seemed to return to reality. Small regional and large investment banks have come under pressure. This can only lead one to believe it is still to early to buy the financial sector.

Alternatively, this sudden assault of deflation amongst the commodities and their valuations has made these stocks attractive; with caution.

These are a few areas of immediate interest for at least the next 6-8 month horizon. Oil, natural gas, and gold all seemed to have taken quite the pounding. I believe the key to this trade is selectively choosing your entry point. I brought some SLB, Slumberger at around 95 and was quickly down 12.5%. The same loss was seen in my position in XTO, which was purchased at 44 and change.

The market seemed to come to it’s senses as most of my loss has morphed into a slight gain in both these positions. I believe with the current sentiment of fear. My strategy is to add to these position on the way down and sell them on the way up.

I plan to trade some of the Gold stocks employing the same trading methodolgy. Particularly, on my radar is AUY- Yamana, AEM- Agnico Minds, the CNBC “Fast Money” favorite ETF ) exhange traded fund the GLD.

Mad Money’s, Jim Cramer has suggested a long position in Biotechnoology well into the month of October. We have chosen to watch closely the hard hit BIIB- Biogen. This stock lost almost 20 points in one trading session. This loss was in response to news the drug may be linked to a recent patient’s death.

Lastly, two hand picked stocks by Mr. Cramer are Jones Apparel at $17.00; and ORB- a natural gas play at $24.00. It’s not often that an exact entry point is suggsested so we though it might be interesting to include this with our current market watch list.

 



Watch List 7-30-08

July 31, 2008 By: admin Category: Market Mac

This list of symbols will be part of our focus list over the next several weeks.

selects-7-30-082.gif

Reorganization - June 16, 2008

June 19, 2008 By: admin Category: Market Mac

Several weeks back we published the article “Whisperings of a Downturn”, to our dismay the market ran up over 500 points. Although, these gains have quickly been reversed in the past couple of weeks largely due to continued concerns in the credit markets, level 3 assets, and Lehman Brother’s losses; one fact consistently remains true: You cannot time the markets. You can recognize business trends and areas that will yield consistent growth. This will be our focus over the next couple of weeks. We see select sectors continuing to grow. Energy has been without question the best performing sector. Is their any real catalyst to stop energy consumption? In the short to medium term we cannot forecast a legitimate reason for demand to decrease.

Agriculture continues to see the multiple at which investors are willing to pay for their growth expand. Alternatively, based on valuations some of the dry shippers seem undervalued. FRO, Frontline, DRYS, Dry Ships, and Nordic American Tankers are all on our radar but, with the instability of their raw input costs, oil, caution is recommended.

Several head winds exist, which don’t appear to have any immediate solution. Number one is inflation due to dollar weakness. The very same pundits who had kick and screamed for Federal Reserve rate cuts are no posturing for rate hikes. It is again why we consider energy the premier issue this election year. The argument can be made that we have not been successful in cutting rates to prevent an economic slowdown. Similarly, the same individuals who demanded rate cuts, also believe drilling is the solution to our energy crisis.